Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@cwong15
Capacitive touch has plenty of precision. But they work by measuring the conductivity of something sitting on-top of the screen rather than just the centre of force. So the tip needs to be conductive in some way

Yes, a lot of the ones that do exist have this big, flabby but of rubber on the end and are garbage. But they don't need to be like that. And you can get ones with relatively fine tips for not much money at all

The main reason they're generally crap is that they can be crap and still work. Also fingers work far better on capacitive screens than they did on resistive screens so there's less need for them. Which means they can be even more crap

@Magician Moore's Law is Dead's latest video still seems to think Nintendo is going with Samsung's 8nm? Am I listening to that correctly? I wonder why he thinks that, because I'm hopelessly optimistic that TSMC's 4nm is still possible.

@skywake This is just my personal preference but I disagree, I think capacitive touch screens are much less precise, even with your finger. I played Metroid Prime Hunters religiously with a competitive online forum at the time, so I developed an extremely fine sensitivity to the smallest twitches and flicks with the resistive touch screen.

Another game that reveals the difference is TWEWY. Executing high-level combos by combining attack pins in perfect sequence, in order to achieve the highest battle rankings, is much harder to do on the Switch version with your finger.

@Ulysses I don't fully recall, but I believe a "contact" of his says it was Samsung 8N, but I don't think they themselves were quite sure, and given everything we know about the system so far, it's just not feasible. Nintendo had to deal with Switch's poor battery life because they had no options after contracting out for the Tegra X1 other than dropping clocks. They immediately moved to TSMC 16nm when it became available, and it's very possible that they were the ones that requested it in the first place.

Now with Switch 2 and them being a part of the T239's custom design from the start, at what point would it be logical for Nintendo to throw themselves into an even worse situation than what they had with the Tegra X1? To save a couple of bucks? People have this notion that Nintendo is cheap, but if they were, then what reason would they have to be using LPDDR5X? Besides, being on Samsung 8N would result in high thermals and high power consumption. One might say to just drop the clocks, but there are various points where power consumption changes. There is one which is considered the peak-efficiency mark, where it grants the most performance per watt, but there's another where dropping any further is basically useless in terms of power consumption. This later point I believe was calculated to be around 420 Mhz. That would grant roughly 1.3 TFlops with the T239's 12 SMs (1536 CUDA cores), but on Samsun 8N, that was estimated to be in the 6w range. WAAAAYYY to high for portable mode, especially if that battery is not going to be that much bigger based on those images we saw. I think 6-7W is the range for Switch's v2/Lite/OLED mode for "everything", not just the SoC or one component, and quite a bit more than Switch v1's GPU. Dropping below 420 Mhz would do so little for power consumption to the point where they could have gone with few SMs and clocked it higher to get lower power consumption.

Simply put, Samsung 8N doesn't make sense.

@Discostew Do you know much about Samsung's 8LPU process, and how it might compare against TSMC's 4nm or even 6-7nm nodes? Some people think Samsung's 8LPU process would also be a likely candidate.

@cwong15 You ever use the stylus they made for Colors Plus? Third party company managed a pressure sensitive, very accurate stylus for the Switch. I wouldn't rule Nintendo looking at that for their own use off the cards.

@Ulysses
Just putting it out there that Moore's Law is Dead is full of it. I wouldn't put much weight into what he says much at all. I remember a while ago people were going nuts over one of his videos where he said that the Switch 2 SoC had been ready for "years" and that they were obviously delaying Switch 2 to clear Switch inventory.....

What a load of nonsense. Don't waste your time watching his stuff. Not worth the effort

@Ulysses I don't really know much because there's very little information about it. But Samsung did post a chart showing where it lies.

https://i.imgur.com/vI5X6aP.png

As far as I understand, 8N used by Nvidia is more or less 8LPP, and 8LPU is one step beyond that in the same node class. But remember that Samsung's 8nm that incorporates all these are all based on 10nm, so while there is probably some optimizations done beyond 8LPP, I doubt it can match even TSMC 7nm.

I wouldn't trust that MLID guy just for the amount of times he slips into his content references to the channel having previously leaked stuff as if I'm meant to be totting up their leaker rep score. Just obnoxious.

Interesting article at Metro.co.uk today about the Blade (accessories manufacturer) CEO saying Switch Successor launch is just dependent on Nintendo financial targets for 2024-25, which will determine either a March or April release, supposedly. Nothing earth shattering or surprising there, but a reasonably credible source at least.

https://metro.co.uk/2024/09/27/nintendo-switch-2-release-date...

@Ulysses Re MLID, his problem is that he can announce leaks based on a single source, and also his own speculations can be ill informed. His ‘leak’ of T239 being 8nm was a classic of this. His source didn’t even have hard info - they were just stating it could be fabbed on 8nm but they weren’t involved in the project anymore! He's since rolled back from his 8nm story in later broadcasts.

Re Nvidia on Samsung, a recent low end 3000 RTX card is actually a cut down Lovelace card, which suggests that Nvidia are moving off of Samsung

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Nvidia-GeForce-RTX-3050-A-Ada-L...

@TSR3 That RTX 3050 A would be just under 7 TFlops on boost clock, but that 4GB of VRAM is just...... ugh.

@Discostew I did say it was "low end" Though the T239 will also be 'low end' in comparison to the current crop of dedicated GPUs, so even if it is fabbed on 4nm and hits our expected targets, the PC brigade will still be moaning that it's weak compared to a 4090 or something.

@TSR3 I agree, but I was focusing on that 4GB of VRAM, which honestly could hinder games to the point where even the Switch 2's weaker targets would probably be more performant.

I'm so excited for Switch 2 Ahhhhh I need news now 🤪

Rumors claim a new Mario will be ready for launch, but what else do you guys think might launch in the Switch 2's first launch year? 2025 will be a banger if they have at least 2 solid first-party launch titles prepared for day one, with 1-3 more AA and AAA titles by the end of 2025.

Obviously two of those games can include Pokemon Z-A and Metroid Prime 4. However, I think with this extra time, Nintendo could be preparing around 1-3 first party titles in 2025 that are fully exclusive to the Switch 2, not cross-platform. So probably Mario, and... perhaps a Switch 2 Kirby?

Kirby might follow the Mario formula, and go from Kirby (and the forgotten) Land ➡️ World ➡️ Galaxy. We could see a Kirby World-esque game on the Switch 2 pretty soon. I've already been dreaming of a Kirby Galaxy game for quite some time, but that will take years to get around to.

Splatoon 4 would be great, but I'm thinking that will be more 2026. For that dev team, I'm more hoping for a new Animal Crossing in 2025. I would love the new game to transition to more of a behind-the-shoulder third-person perspective, similar to the Camera mode.

Speaking of the camera, I think a great way to expand on the Critterpedia mechanic would be to add bird watching! Not only will you catch bugs and fish, but also capture pictures of birds! You could donate bird pictures to a new wing in the museum, which could be part of an expanded art exhibit. Adding a photography wing could create opportunities to donate all kinds of other pictures as well.

Something I would love to see in a Switch 2 Animal Crossing is the ability to invite villagers to do things with you! Invite a villager or two to go on a shopping run, or to go visit the museum together! Even just inviting a few villagers to go fishing together would be fun. With more of a third-person perspective, that would also open opportunities to take selfies with your villagers lol.

Nice energy there 😆

I'm doubtful we'll get Animal Crossing in 2025; it's consistently been a 2nd or 3rd year of console game and even if you assume Switch 2 was delayed half a year I would guess 2026 at earliest.

Given Mario 3D as an assumption, we will have 2 potential GotY games on the docket already (Mario and Metroid) and one potentially very good Pokemon so although there needs to be games--in particular some third party ports showing off the new power of the console-- there doesn't have to be too much more insanity from Nintendo.

I would guess there will be Kirby but probably too early for 3D Kirby. I'm guessing brand new 2D game. Might be cross-gen or not.

Seems unlikely there will be Smash yet, so maybe Arms 2 or some random new or resurrected multiplayer game?

If Switch 2 comes out the first half of the year I think Mario Kart for the holidays is a definite possibility.

Other than that? A Zelda remaster just because there is usually Zelda but probably cross-gen. Some first party game which specifically shows off Switch 2 improved graphics/performance in a non-Mario-cartoony way. Probably also something extremely unexpected.

October is going to be really painful 🥹

Fair points. You could argue Pokemon Z-A might prove to be AAA-ish after fully revealing how ambitious it is. And with Mario and Metroid, that would pencil in at least 3 AAA first party titles in 2025 already.

This video, while just speculation, makes a decent case for 2025. If nothing else, the 4 minute mark in the video outlines an interesting coincidence with HAL's release schedule, lining up a mainline Kirby for 2025. Again, as you said, it could be 2D instead of 3D. Also possible that it could be cross-gen instead of Switch 2 exclusive. But I agree with him that after HAL took longer developing Forgotten Land in order to figure out translating Kirby into 3D, they can pump out another 3D Kirby in a relatively shorter timeframe compared to Forgotten Land.

Speaking of a Zelda remaster, that reminds me of that other rumor claiming BOTW was getting The Last Of Us treatment, with a Switch 2 remaster prepped for launch.

So let's just say for argument's sake:

• 3D Mario
• BOTW remaster
• MP4
• Pokemon Z-A
• 3D Kirby.

That's Mario + Zelda + Pokemon + the most ambitious Metroid and Kirby games yet; three new AAA games, plus two AA games (let's just say BOTW is the AA game since it's the remake). That does end up sounding like a pretty solid first-party launch year.

EDIT:
How could I forget about one last wildcard: Monolithsoft.

I'm really hoping they will have a title prepared for 2025, if not the launch lineup. Because while Nintendo appreciates Pokemon Legends Z-A coinciding with the Switch 2 launch, I don't think they include Pokemon as 100% first-party (or Kirby for that matter). Therefore, I think Nintendo wants one last game with which to surprise fans. And remember, Monolithsoft managed to make Xenoblade 2 a year one game for Switch, so I'm betting Nintendo would want them to do the same for Switch 2.

The default is to assume it's a 60fps remastered Xenoblade X. However, I'll go out on a limb here and speculate it's a brand new IP the #1 team has been working on.

I hope against hope they will reveal new IP in the October Nintendo Direct: the fabled medieval fantasy ARPG with online coop and dragon combat. Mechanically, it could resemble Granblue Fantasy Relink: another medieval fantasy ARPG with online coop.

However, that one big hook will be Monolithsoft's expertise with mech gameplay. And how else do you translate mechs into a fantasy game? With dragons.

Plus, if Switch 2 boasts a new generation of improved online capabilities, like improved friend system and online multiplayer, then Nintendo will want its own first-party game to really drive that point home.

So my proposed dream-like 2025 lineup for first party-ish games would look like:

• 3D Mario
• Zelda BOTW remaster
• Metroid Prime 4
• Monolithsoft New IP
• Pokemon Legends Z-A
• 3D Kirby

Now that would be an incredible first year for any console.

It's going to have 12GB of unified memory so depending on the title and how big the core game footprint is it could well end up less restricted on VRAM than some NVidia GPUs that will retail for more than the Switch 2 itself!

/person who has an 8GB 4060Ti

I have a question. Is there a successor to the T239 chip. Folk are moaning about it being old out of the gate (I mean, so was the X1 but look how well the Switch did.) I only ask because will Switch 2 be the 'end of the road' for NVidia / Nintendo hybrids? Or will there be a Switch 3. (And I pray I haven't given any Youtubers any ideas asking this question soooo early!)

@skywake Hopefully we'll get 11GB available if the OS still takes just 1GB. IIRC OatmealDome recently showed that the existing Switch OS did have elements in it currently unused but ready for Switch2.

@Discostew Didn't the DigitalFoundry's attempt at simulating T239 use an RTX 2050 with just 4GB as well? Which I thought kinda negated a lot of their findings

@GrailUK No there's isn't an obvious successor, if you were looking at announced future Tegra SoCs. But T239 is a custom design for Nintendo - it was developed in parallel to Orin, but it isn't a spin-off. So any successor will be customised again, and I don't think we'll be able to play the game of looking at the Tegra line up again.
T239 also won't be 'old out of the gate'. It will be the most advanced mobile SoC outside of Apple devices. Intel, AMD and Qualcomm do not have anything close at that power rating.

@TSR3 Oh, interesting. Well hopefully they will have another 7 or so years to develop something.