Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Nintendo might as well push for 'the best selling console of all time' (tm) at this point. Their next system will have marketing money can't buy (and will be similar to the 'playing with power' days hehe.) nevermind cementing their image. After this holiday, they can't be too far away!

In April 2017 the New 2DSXL was revealed. If the Next Switch is released fall 2025, maybe April could be the slot for a final Switch revision. When I think Switch revision, I’m thinking of a replacement for the Lite. More compact, possibly a docking feature compatible with joy con. But no matter the release of the Next Switch, a compact form factor from Nintendo would be a welcome thing for many

In August they had sold 143 million. Considering PS2 arguably sold 160 million, they would need 17 million more. Nintendo's goal at the start of the fiscal year was 13.5 million but they said that might change and it was generally assumed in the media they would likely not reach that goal. There was 2 and a bit million sales first quarter and we don't yet know second quarter so let's be generous and assume they reach the target and in April 2025 they added 11 million more to get 154 million which ties the DS. By then Switch 2 will be announced no matter what and they would need 6 more million, an amount they couldn't really reach in 2025 unless they have some 2025 holiday sales of Switch 1 after Switch 2 is out. Honestly mostly it depends on how much Switch stock Nintendo still has next year because they could still slowly sell it in 2026 for comparatively cheap after Switch 2 is out, maybe cheap lites as a value option. If however they don't even make 160 million devices clearly they won't sell 160.

Note that I don't think Nintendo cares at all, I was just curious if the math plausibly worked out.

@GrailUK
From my point of view, the Nintendo Switch already is the best selling video game console of all time. Many people bought the PS2 because it was one of the best and cheapest DVD players at the time and never used it for anything else. The Switch didn't have that advantage.

It feels like people like to point out the corrosiveness of corporations continuously seeking the biggest numbers as the only measure of success, but when it’s their pet corporation like Nintendo, there’s possibly an exception for some? Every big corporation has its fans, and I think that’s okay. Just makes disagreements out there a ravel.

@NinChocolate
Not sure if that was directed towards me, but I don't place more value into Nintendo than I do with PlayStation. I've played on all major consoles throughout my life time, and currently I'm only playing on PC. My comment about Switch already being the best selling video game console was just a personal take. Maybe I should have added the word "dedicated" to it. 🤷

@stephajnan not targeting anyone, just putting out a thought to make the de-emphasis for something reaching the biggest number a reasonable take too. So maybe somebody out there can think ‘I like nintendo, but I don’t think they need to strive to dominate in an industry, because that could have costs when all large companies engage similarly’.

@NinChocolate
Fair point.

@NinChocolate
It's a fair point and I do think people are cheerleaders for brands way too often. Especially in this space.

But I would argue two things about your specific point. Firstly I would argue that it's always going to be in a company's interest to make number go bigger. And ultimately we should just assume that any action they take will be in pursuit of that. However, I would argue that outside of places like this lifetime system sales are a side-metric and as such isn't that important

What Nintendo cares about is maximising profit, not maximising unit sales. Often they're one and the same but in periods such as this they aren't necessarily. What matters more are things like attach rates and subscription rates. Someone buying a Switch over the holidays who buys one game and then shelves it 6 months from now after getting the Switch 2? Not super valuable. Someone picking up a Switch 2 over a PS5 and potentially picking up some new games over the next year? Super valuable

@skywake This is also why Nintendo avoids selling hardware at a loss, because they know a lot of people (possibly a majority) buy very few games. And that in turns is one of the major driving forces behind why they don't compete in terms of the latest and greatest specs: Because you can't do that at a profit easily, if at all, as seen with Sony and MS. But it's also a boon to use well-known technology in terms of readily available knowledge and shorter training times of developers.

@skywake I did say above that it’s okay to be a fan of corporations, which probably for most includes allowing them to maximize their shareholder returns (by doing the kinds of things you said) so that hopefully they are also creating value for anyone obtaining from them, be it workers, consumers, etc. As for aligning with these priorities as non-business entities that have to make peace with our planet, and not just shareholders… well, there’s the ravel, as I mentioned as well. Societies are in a tangle with forces that give and take.

@RygelXVIII the video game industry has always seen businesses take on the manufacturing gamble. The fated entries from Sega, Atari, SNK, Bandai and more, definitely show the numbers have to be hitting near highest market potential to make a business. Nintendo has sold at a loss (3DS, WiiU for certain periods) but hasn’t made a console that didn’t generate a profit overall. It will be interesting to see where the Next Switch lands for price because I think Nintendo will have no choice but to prioritize it’s highest considered margin after record Switch sales.